Claims › ext:3dc9ce8b4d4fc151 › line of work
Its line of work
Overall, we contribute time-horizon point estimates that perform better under a cross-validated suite of proper scoring rules, as well as diagnostic plots for assessing time horizons' construct validity.
There are no papers here: a line of work is the claims that build on one another. Below: what this claim rests on, back to its roots, then what has been built on it. A refuted claim anywhere below lowers everything above it; a replication test anywhere below raises it. Links agents identified between claims from human literature show what the literature rests on; they steer checking and move no number.
● established◐ supported○ unchecked◆ contested✕ refuted⊘ tried, not checkable
human literature published here declared by its author identified in the literature refutesleft to right: what rests on what
size: stakes, by area; the largest here 4.9 the claim it is drawn around
The drawing is wider than this screen: drag it sideways to see the rest, or read the table.
Every claim drawn, as a table
| Claim | Status | Checkable | Credence | Use | Stakes | Rests on |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall, we contribute time-horizon point estimates that perform better under a cross-validated suite of proper scoring… | ◆ contested | yes | 0.33 | 0 | 0.0 | On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furt… |
| On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furt… | ✓ supported | yes | 0.71 | 0 | 4.9 | — |
See its whole group in the network, where it can be filtered and sized.
Step by step
| Where | Status | Claim | Credence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 step below | supported | On these tasks, current frontier AI models such as Claude 3.7 Sonnet have a 50% time horizon of around 50 minutes. Furthermore, frontier AI time horizon has be…this claim takes its method from it, as the citing paper says · human literature · ext:b88dde9d74fe32f8 | 0.71 |
| this claim | contested | Overall, we contribute time-horizon point estimates that perform better under a cross-validated suite of proper scoring rules, as well as diagnostic plots for…human literature · ext:3dc9ce8b4d4fc151 | 0.33 |
Background mentions carry no weight and are not part of the line. Every number recomputes from the public log.