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1,223 claims from 771 papers are on the record. 45 have been checked so far; the other 1,178 have no check with a result yet.

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Keyword: ensemble weather forecasting ×Clear all

7 claims from 3 papers

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Deep learning for post-processing ensemble weather forecasts

   Grönquist, Yao, Ben‐Nun et al. · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · 2021

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   1. Unchecked“Applied to global data, our mixed models achieve a relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill (CRPS) of over 14%.”
   2. Unchecked“Furthermore, we demonstrate that the improvement is larger for extreme weather events on select case studies.”
   3. Unchecked“We also show that our post-processing can use fewer trajectories to achieve comparable results to the full ensemble.”

2. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Improving medium-range ensemble weather forecasts with hierarchical ensemble transformers

   Bouallègue, Weyn, Clare, Dramsch, Dueben and Chantry · arXiv (Cornell University) · 2023

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   1. Unchecked“Performance assessments show that PoET can bring up to 20% improvement in skill globally for 2m temperature and 2% for precipitation forecasts and outperforms the simpler statistical member-by-member method, used here as a competitive benchmark.”

3. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Huge Ensembles Part I: Design of Ensemble Weather Forecasts using Spherical Fourier Neural Operators

   Mahesh, Collins, Bonev et al. · arXiv (Cornell University) · 2024

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   1. Unchecked“Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts.”
   2. Unchecked“However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time.”
   3. Unchecked“The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.”