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Status: Unchecked ×Keyword: heat records ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Physics-based models outperform AI weather forecasts of record-breaking extremes

   Zhang, Fischer, Zscheischler and Engelke · Science Advances · 2026

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   1. Unchecked“Here, we show that for record-breaking weather extremes, the physics-based numerical model High RESolution forecast (HRES) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts still consistently outperforms state-of-the-art AI models GraphCast, GraphC…
   2. Unchecked“We demonstrate that forecast errors in AI models are consistently larger for record-breaking heat, cold, and wind than in HRES across nearly all lead times.”
   3. Unchecked“We further find that the examined AI models tend to underestimate both the frequency and intensity of record-breaking events, and they underpredict hot records and overestimate cold records with growing errors for larger record exceedance.”