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Keyword: machine learning emulators ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Statistical Equivalence of AI Emulators and Earth System Models: A Large Ensemble Study with Ultra-Low-Resolution E3SM

   Mahajan, Kelleher and Fan · Platform for Advanced Scientific Computing Conference (PASC) · 2026

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   1. Unchecked“Emulator ensembles are found to be strongly underdispersive: ensemble spread grows robustly with lead time in E3SMv3 while remaining much smaller in the emulator.”
   2. Unchecked“A nonparametric permutation test on the 20-dimensional RMSE covariance matrices shows that the covariance and correlation structures of the emulator and E3SMv3 differ significantly, with the observed Frobenius-norm statistic lying far in the tail of the perm…
   3. Unchecked“Across variables, the emulator also under-populates the upper tails of the ensemble distributions, indicating an underrepresentation of rare but dynamically important events.”