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Keyword: model uncertainty ×Clear all

2 claims from 1 paper

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   Toward Calibrated Ensembles of Neural Weather Model Forecasts

   Baño‐Medina, Sengupta, Watson‐Parris, Hu and Monache · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · 2025

   The authors propose an ensemble design for neural weather models combining model and initial condition uncertainty, which they report is competitive with the ECMWF 50-member IFS ensemble.

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   1. Unchecked“The combination of these two types of uncertainty produces an ensemble of NWM‐based forecasts that is shown to improve upon benchmark probabilistic NWM and is competitive with the 50‐member ensemble of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts b…
   2. UncheckedThe proposed way of building neural weather forecast ensembles is scalable, allowing ensembles of 100 members, with possible uses for extreme events.“The proposed strategy is scalable, enabling the generation of very large ensembles (100) with potential applications for extreme events.”