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Keyword: multilevel models ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   Stylised fact or situated messiness? The diverse effects of increasing debt on national economic growth

   Bell, Johnston and Jones · Journal of Economic Geography · 2014

   The paper reanalyses Reinhart and Rogoff's debt and growth data for developed countries with multilevel models, finding diverse country effects and a causal direction mainly from growth to debt.

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   1. UncheckedIn multilevel models that let debt's effect vary by country and control for time trends, the average effect of debt on growth disappears, but country effects differ.“Using multilevel models, we find that when the effect of debt on growth is allowed to vary, and linear time trends are fully controlled for, the average effect of debt on growth disappears, whilst country-specific debt relations vary significantly.”
   2. UncheckedIn this reanalysis of developed-country data, countries with high debt levels appear to have more volatile growth rates.“Additionally, countries with high debt levels appear more volatile in their growth rates.”
   3. UncheckedModels in this reanalysis suggest that growth mostly drives debt rather than the reverse, and that this holds across most countries, with some exceptions.“These models suggest the causal direction is predominantly growth-to-debt, and is consistent (with some exceptions) across countries.”