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Keyword: perturbation generation ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

   A fast physics-based perturbation generator of machine learning weather model for efficient ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone track

   Pu, Mu, Feng, Zhong and Li · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · 2025

   The authors built a fast, physics-based way to perturb an AI weather model's starting conditions for tropical cyclone track ensembles, which they report outperform ECMWF forecasts, including with 2000 members.

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   1. Unchecked“Based on this perturbation scheme, the TC track ensemble forecasts within the AI-based model significantly outperform those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for both deterministic and probabilistic metrics.”
   2. UncheckedRunning tropical cyclone track forecasts with 2000 ensemble members, a first, improved skill in the probability distribution and extreme scenarios of storm movement.“Notably, we conduct TC track forecasts with 2000 members for the first time, achieving further enhanced forecast skills in probability distribution and extreme scenarios of TC movement.”
   3. Unchecked“These initial perturbations are conditioned on specific amplitude and spatial characteristics, exhibiting physically reasonable dynamical growth and spatial covariance.”