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Status: Unchecked ×Keyword: physical capital investment ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   How much debt is too much? Debt-growth dynamics in commodity-dependent and non-commodity-dependent developing economies

   Carrington, Padilla and Pozo · International Economics · 2025

   The paper estimates public debt thresholds beyond which growth suffers in commodity-exporting and other developing countries, using 1981–2019 panel data for 46 countries.

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   1. UncheckedIn 46 developing countries, debt above about 62% of GDP (1981–2000) and about 54% (2001–2019) is linked to lower growth in commodity exporters.“Using panel data for 46 countries from 1981 to 2019, the analysis identifies distinct debt thresholds for the two groups, revealing significant negative effects of debt on growth beyond 62.14% of GDP for commodity exporters over the period 1981–2000, and beyond 53.83% during 2001–2019.”
   2. Unchecked“For non-exporters, a debt threshold has emerged only over recent decades and is identified at 67.96% of GDP, with low-to-moderate debt levels positively associated with growth.”
   3. Unchecked“The results highlight the role of institutions, human and physical capital investment, and trade openness in mitigating the growth drag effects of debt, particularly concerning commodity exporters.”