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Keyword: post-crisis recovery ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   Debt-growth link after an economic crisis: The case of Central and Southeast Europe

   Simeonovski, Fidanoski, Petkovski and Sergi · Post-Communist Economies · 2022

   The paper estimates a non-linear panel model for 16 Central and Southeast European countries, 2009–2018, and reports debt thresholds of roughly 69 to 81% of GDP beyond which debt relates to lower growth.

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   1. UncheckedIn 16 Central and Southeast European countries over 2009–2018, growth first rises then falls as government debt increases, a concave pattern.“The findings point out to concavity of the growth function with respect to government debt.”
   2. UncheckedIn 16 Central and Southeast European countries, estimated debt thresholds for growth were 77.3% of GDP at baseline and 69.4–74.1% with budget balance controls.“The estimates from the baseline model determine the debt threshold at the level of 77.3% of GDP, while the debt threshold ranges from 69.4 to 74.1% of GDP when the primary and overall budget balances are included as covariates.”
   3. UncheckedUsing GMM estimates, the debt level at which growth turns down is put at 78.9% of GDP, or 75.8 to 80.7% with investment and employment as controls.“The GMM estimates that we make to deal with potential endogeneity determine the debt threshold at the level of 78.9% of GDP when there are no covariates, while the debt threshold ranges from 75.8 to 80.7% of GDP when the gross fixed capital formation and employment are added as covariates.”