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Status: Unchecked ×Keyword: rare event prediction ×Clear all

3 claims from 1 paper

1. Earth and Planetary Sciences › Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research

   Operational tropical cyclone forecasting with AI

   Alet, Andersson, Price et al. · Nature · 2026

   The authors present WeatherNext Cyclones, an AI ensemble model forecasting tropical cyclone track, intensity and size up to 15 days ahead, and report it outperforms leading operational models on 2023–2025 storms.

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   1. UncheckedOn 2023–2025 cyclones, the AI model WN-C's forecasts gave on average a lead-time gain of a day or more over leading operational models.“When evaluated on tropical cyclones from 2023 to 2025, the track, intensity and wind-radius predictions from WN-C offer an average lead-time advantage of 1 day or more over leading operational models—an improvement in accuracy comparable to the progress seen in the last decade of operational develo…”
   2. Unchecked“We achieved these results using inputs that are orders of magnitude coarser than regional models, suggesting that high resolution is not a strict prerequisite for state-of-the-art intensity forecasting and that these coarse atmospheric data contain more inte…
   3. UncheckedThe WN-C AI model can run ensembles of up to 1,000 members, which the paper says capture rare events better than conventional 50-member ensembles.“The scalability of WN-C enables ensembles of up to 1,000 members, which are better at capturing rare events than conventional 50-member ensembles.”