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Keyword: threshold effects ×Clear all

4 claims from 3 papers

1. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?

   Chudík, Mohaddes, Pesaran and Raissi · The Review of Economics and Statistics · 2016

   The paper develops tests for debt thresholds in panel data and applies them to forty countries from 1965 to 2010, finding no universal threshold but a negative effect of debt buildup on growth.

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   1. UncheckedIn data from forty countries over 1965–2010, the paper finds no evidence of one debt level that changes how public debt affects growth in every country.“In the empirical application, using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965–2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth.”
   2. UncheckedWhatever debt threshold is assumed, the paper finds that building up public debt significantly reduces output growth in its sample of forty countries.“Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth.”

2. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   Public debt and economic growth in advanced economies: A survey

   Panizza and Presbitero · Zeitschrift für schweizerische Statistik und Volkswirtschaft/Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Swiss journal of economics and statistics · 2013

   A survey of recent research on public debt and growth in advanced economies, finding theory ambiguous, causal evidence weak, and debt thresholds not robust.

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   1. UncheckedMany studies link higher public debt with lower growth, but the authors find no paper that makes a strong case that debt causes slower growth.“While many papers have found a negative correlation between debt and growth, our reading of the empirical literature is that there is no paper that can make a strong case for a causal relationship going from debt to economic growth.”

3. Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Fiscal Policies and Political Economy

   Testing for a Debt‐Threshold Effect on Output Growth

   Lee, Park, Seo and Shin · Fiscal Studies · 2017

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   1. Unchecked“Using the Reinhart–Rogoff dataset, we find a debt threshold not around 90 per cent but around 30 per cent, above which the median real gross domestic product (GDP) growth falls abruptly.”